Poker Strategy Guide Using Poker Calculators
Doubling Up in Multi-Table Tournaments
I've read a few people write about the importance of doubling up in MTTs (and quadrupling up in re-buys). This had got me thinking about how you go about doing that and still properly observing GCI (Game Critical Intersects).
I once saw Antonia Esfandiari get knocked out of a tournament early with JJ going all-in after two raises in front of him. he was interviewed after saying that you have double up early or get out. That was a cop-out to a seriously bad rookie error. There is no way Daniel or Chris Ferguson would do that. Even the wild guys like Gus prefer to play it small ball, than letting it ride for a double-up. It’s completely reckless in my opinion, even online, unless you have KK or AA.
Let’s assume that you stay in the yellow or green mzone through this whole process (and ignore triple ups for the time being). Every single time you "double-up", you must be getting all your chips in the middle against another equally or bigger stacked opponent.....and win! If you are only "allowed" to do that when you have "the nuts or close to it" how is it possible to be aiming at double ups without breaching GCI?
I don't think I get the nuts 9 times in a single tournament. Statistically if you are going to be doubling up, then you also need to have the nuts or close to it when an opponent also has a very strong hand....so you should need the nuts a lot more than 9 times. We all know this really just does not happen.
It’s when you get to the Orange MZone that you could, and should start looking to double up. Under an orange mzone condition, a good number of your opponents are going to have you substantially out-stacked. If you are using a poker calculator like tournament indicator, it will show you what mzone you are in throughout the whole tournament. Now that also means your Q, or stack average, is probably relatively low as well.
For example, a tournament I was playing. I was 41 of 64 remaining. I have been in all mzones so far. In Orange and Red I was aiming to double up and have done. In Green and Yellow I have been aiming to control the pot size to avoid getting all my chips in the middle (unless I have the nuts or close to it). But here my Q is getting low, and after a quick glance at the payout structure it’s really time now to look for a situation where I can participate in huge pot with live cards, or get heads up against a maniac with a slight edge. A hand like A5os or KQs might do the trick here.
Just keep in mind the GCI rule of thumb and as you experience in tournaments grows as a result of being so conscious about it, I am kind of thinking, that for those who subscribe to GCI as a governing factor in play choice, then GCI leads to small ball poker in green and yellow and long ball in orange and red. This will ease the stress of making big decision that would otherwise be rather risky.
Poker Calculator Types and the Security of Your Poker Bankroll
If you play online poker, then I am sure you are familiar with at least one of the online poker calculators. If you don’t already own one, then you probably are thinking of owning one. But if a poker calculator investment is in your near future you should know the basic types and how they relate to the security of your poker account and bankroll.
Poker Calculator Types
Mathematical – Generally speaking, all poker calculators have the fundamental ability to calculate the bets and pot size while measuring that against your position, hole card strength and drawing potential. These basic reading functions, extracted right from your poker window automatically, are essentially why poker calculators exist in the first place. They quickly decipher the exact math and probabilities and offer a raise, call, check or fold recommendation.
Empirical – In addition to the above features, these Poker Calculators monitor and record the behavior of your opponents. Based on this added information, such a Poker Calculator can help support or contradict your impression of a certain opponent’s grid factor, but more likely, set the framework for an hypothesis all on its’ own.
Operative – This type of poker calculator will have a combination of at least some of the features in each of the Mathematical and Empirical, but is distinct in how it obtains that information. You could call this the “black hat” of Poker Calculators, because it extracts information on your future opponents, by monitoring your poker website’s table action, and thus building a player database whether you are at a table or not. Then you can retrieve information from that database to view your opponents’ hand selection, playing styles, raising habits, bankroll fluctuations, experience, and a host of other factors.
In general, the Mathematical and Empirical types of poker calculators are either allowed or supported to some degree by your poker website, of course depending on compatibility. If you are pondering the purchase of an Operative Poker Calculator however, you need to know there is risk involved. On the sunny side, your poker website may never know you are using one and you will not be penalized, while enjoying a distinct, statistical advantage over your opponents. That however, is optimistic. The reality is that Mr. Big Poker Site is constantly on the lookout for such programs and enjoys the legal power to remove you from a table(s), confiscate your bankroll, and ban you from their site permanently. This however, is pessimistic. Let it be known though, that Mr. Big Poker Site has a huge investigation budget and will continue to throw money at this issue with the intent to seek and destroy you and those “Black Hat” programmers. They need to, because it’s their reputation at stake for fairness and image. Because simply put, a Big Poker Site cannot attract new players amidst cheating scandals.
Using Your Poker Calculator to Spot a Pro at the Table
You don’t necessarily need a poker calculator to do this but at the least, it sure can help you confirm or deny your suspicions about the quality of your opponent. You may have been attracted to your favorite poker website with the lure of numerous fish, but wherever they are, there too, are sharks. So it only follows that you need to know who they are. Your poker calculator will virtually tell you who they are by indicating how many hands they play, how many pre-flop raises they make, and how many hands they win at showdown – all this without ever having to know what they were holding.
The VPIP Pulse of Holdem Indicator plainly shows how many hands each player at your table entered the pot whether raising, checking, or calling. Players under 30% for this measurement are to be taken carefully. If they happen to be under 20%, they have a solid, big card hand at the very least. So you know if your hole cards are mediocre, like AJos, KQs etc. lay them down to this player, because the chances are you are at least an underdog, and quite likely dominated.
Consistent pre-flop raising is a solid indication you are dealing with a pro. Experienced players generally follow the assumption that aggressiveness, combined with solid post flop play will win a lot of pots whether you hit the flop or not. If you have a look at Hold’em Indicator’s session stats, the PFR% column shows exactly the amount of raises divided by hands played. The higher this is, the more likely you are up against a pro that knows his odds are better playing heads-up. I usually find a percentage of 40% or more is indicative of professional play. It’s that low because you have to factor in the late position, pot odds calls. That in itself is another sign of professional play.
You know to be concerned about being heads up in a pot when your opponent has a hand win rate of 70%or more. You can see this rating on Hold’em Pirate in the session stats. This means your opponent is basically in with the goods. Save for being drawn out, if you go to the river with this opponent, you better not be bluffing or drawing as these game critical intersects will cost you chips or cash. A real pro will rarely go to the river without the best hand, or without an opportunity to take the pot from a weaker player.
Poker Calculators and The Sklansky Group Hand Rankings
You may have noticed that while using your poker calculator it displays your hand odds while also using terminology like “hand rank”, “group”, or “group rank” all of which in some way or another refer to author David Sklansky’s Group Hand ranking for hold’em poker. Originally described in the classic book, "Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players", Sklansky rated all the starting hands and put them in groups according to their similar win rate.
By clustering hands based on win rate and strength, it’s easier to keep track of basic betting strategies associated with each individual hand. For example, in Sklansky Group 3 hands you will find 99, AQ, ATs, and JTs among others. The best cluster though is Sklansky’s Group One which includes AA, AKs, KK, QQ, and JJ. They are going to show very high percentage win rates on your poker calculator as well as “raise, and re-raise” recommendations.
In adopting the Sklansky Group of Hands your poker calculator could in effect make you a “book player”, because many, especially the mathematical poker calculators don’t take other factors into account at the poker table. However, as a guideline, your poker calculator is going to have the exact odds, and correct mathematical indication served up for you, David Sklansky style.
Poker calculators have adopted this because, well they are just software designed by programmers, and not necessarily poker enthusiasts, but Sklansky is a Poker icon, educator, and author. I have had several poker calculators running at the same time for testing, and have found very similar results and percentage recommendations, because they generally use the same statistical backbone as Sklansky Group of Hands.
The difference between them lie in how their other features are factored in, such as how it monitors your position, how many players in the pot, how many tight or aggressive players, stage of a tournament, and if a player’s stake is up or down significantly.
Although published years ago, by using The Sklansky Group of Hands, poker software offers credibility to the ranking system, although it sure didn’t need it. Professional players have known these rankings and what to do with them for years. Seasoned opponents will also know how to use them against you, if you are an obvious book player, so mixing it up is always a good idea.
Some other books published by David Sklansky include The Theory of Poker, Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, and Hold’em Poker.