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Playing the odds with Middle pairs.
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Written by krishna
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Sunday, 07 December 2008 23:46 |
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Page 4 of 4
LOL i was going to post this link up, but then I see you have already done it.
I think you may be doing some incorrect math in the first post though...
when you say you lose 2400 if you are called, I think this is wrong.
Remember, the bets you make before the flop are old news once you have a new betting street. You have to keep this scenario separate.
I am not sure if you are right or wrong in your example, but it could be something wrong with it.
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I lose 2400 because I am going to put my whole stack in irrespective of the flop. So because of the nature of the play, pre flop bets are not old news in this case
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Would it be more correct to say something like.
Preflop investment:
PP VS AK, When AK hits flop
55% EV * 1200
+ (10% EV * 1800) * 30% this % represents the A or K hitting
+ 1200 (assumming AK folds on the flop.
I have no idea if that is right, but it breaks the EV up a little bit.
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I don't think so. I am shoving or calling all-in irrespective of the flop (so even if an A or K flops I still shove).
I run the risk of shoving into a paired AK which is obviously very negative EV, but this is all factored into the 2 stage approach. The 30% of the time when this happens is off-set by the 70% of the time AK misses and folds, or misses and calls without correct odds.
I'll try to explain a little better a bit later, right now, I have to go out for a while.
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Nah I fully get your explanation, I just didn't know whether it was correct mathematically or not, cuz on the flop, you could say you are losing 1800 30% of the time, but winning 600 70% of the time.
I think changing losing 2400 70%, to losing 1800 70% may change the EV of the situation, because you will have 1800 post flop.
I do get what you mean though. If you raise with a PP and shove ANY flop and get called by any pair above you, or achieve a fold to any hand with overs, you either lose 2400, or gain 600.
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JSquared wrote: "I just didn't know whether it was correct mathematically or not, cuz on the flop, you could say you are losing 1800 30% of the time, but winning 600 70% of the time.".
I don't think I follow you. The calculations above only assume you are called pre-flop. The exercise is to compare a 2 stage aggression with a single all-in pre flop bet.
I'm not sure where the 600 fits in. Blinds were 100/200 so that's 300. From a stack of 1800 the pre flop bet would be 900....not 600. You would only win 600 if the blinds were 300 and your pre flop be was 300, but then you would be shoving instead of 2 staging....
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Sorry, I was a little brief .
Assuming that you have 2400, make a standard raise preflop of 600, and assuming you are called. I forgot to to assume that you ar called by someone on the button, and the blinds fold, making the pot 1200 + 300 = 1500.
So now assuming the guy had AK and you shove any flop with your remaining 1800, you will win 1500 70% of the time where he folds his overs, and lose or run into when he hits his over card 30% of the time, your whole stack, the orignal 2400.
Thats what didn't really roll with me.
I think you should say on the flop you win 1500 70% of the time and lose 1800 30% of the time, because you have 1800 left in your stack on the flop, because you are counting the 1500 as a win, even though it has 600 of "your" chips.
I think that last part is a bit confusing, but my main point is that it should count as an 1800 loss on the flop, not a 2400 loss even though the end result will be a 2400 loss.
I don't really think this really matter in the whole purpose of the discussion though,
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I tried to cover that in the first post where I pointed out that a standard raise and shove any flop does not work. Rather it has to be a raise of 1/2 your stack. Hence you would be raising to 1200 not 600.
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nice read, thanks for the input. Info on Pocket Pairs being played in orange mzone is something that I think all of us could benefit from because it can be a tricky decision based on the blinds, your stack and your position at the table.
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